Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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abpw10 pgtw 210600
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/210600z-220600znov2009//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection previously located near 6.5n
129.5e, is now located near 6.9n 128.8e, approximately 350 nm west
of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows improved
consolidation of the deep convection over an increasingly symmetric
low level circulation center (LLCC), as seen in the 202138z Quikscat
pass. Additionally, the 210038z trmm microwave image reveals
multiple low level bands starting to converge into the LLCC.
However, it appears the system still lacks good outflow and the deep
convection is being sheared slightly to the west. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to fair.
(2) an area of convection has persisted near 5.9n 146.9e,
approximately 475 nm south-southeast of Guam. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery shows increasing convective consolidation over a
broad low level circulation center (LLCC). A 201958z Quikscat pass
depicts an elongated LLCC and a 202315z ascat pass indicates 20-knot
winds converging into the LLCC from the west-southwest.
Additionally, the sea level pressure at Chuuk has been around 1005
mb over the last 24 hours. The system is under the subtropical ridge
axis in an area of minimal vertical wind shear and has sufficient
radial outflow. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15
to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.
(3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
